WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

• *First place with 5 1/3 votes! Joshuapundit –Syria-Ossity
• Second place *t* with 2 2/3 votes – The Right Planet – The Syrian Quagmire: The Dangers of U.S. Involvement
• Second place *t* with 2 2/3 votes – The Noisy Room- A Shiny New War: At Home and Abroad
• Third place *t* with 1 vote – Bookworm Room-Gender fantasies in Obama’s America
• Third place *t* with 1 vote – Nice Deb-Obama Taps Former ACORN Lobbyist To Head Obamacare Youth Video Contest…
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Simply Jews-Ayo Kimathi and Department of Homeland Serenity
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Glittering Eye-‘Splain Me
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Colossus of Rhodey – Possibly the dopiest thing I read this week
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Political Commentator –Barack Obama: Foreign policy eunuch!
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Razor – Leftists Disturbed By Reality

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 2/3 votes! – Mark Steyn- Obamacare’s Hierarchy of Privilege submitted by The Noisy Room
• Second place *t* with 2 votes – Victor Davis Hanson – The Middle East – All Bad Choices submitted by The Political Commentator
• Second place *t* with 2 votes – Center For Strategic & International Studies –How To Attack Syria submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes -Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion- The Great Oberlin College Racism Hoax of 2013 submitted by Nice Deb
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – The Commentator -Israel Boycotters: The Goose and the Golden Egg submitted by Joshuapundit
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes - Walter Russell Mead/WSJ – The Failed Grand Strategy in the Middle East submitted by The Razor
• Fourth place with 1 vote - Matthew Yglesias/Slate – Military Strikes Are an Extremely Expensive Way to Help Foreigners submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -NewGeography –America Hanging In There Better than Rivals submitted by Bookworm Room
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Christian Hate? – Ocean of light, ocean of darkness: Quakers and Islamist anti-Semitism submitted by Simply Jews
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Thomas Sowell –A Poignant Anniversary submitted by The Watcher
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Sense Of Events –Why The Law Does Not Matter To Obama submitted by The Watcher
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -HMS Defiant –Injured Sprites Of The Apocalypse submitted by The Mellow Jihadi

See you next week! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Persian Response

So if and when or when Great Satan gets all unilateral on ye olde Suriya al Kubra - WWPD? has been a quiz of sorts - What Would Iran Do?

Recent U.S. intelligence assessments are not entirely comforting, but one silver lining is that for now the government’s analysts do not expect Iran to attempt terrorist attacks outside the Middle East or Afghanistan in the event of limited U.S. air strikes on Syria.  

Although Iran as recently as 2011 plotted a terrorist attack in Washington, D.C., a statement Wednesday from the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hinted that Iran would focus retaliation inside the Middle East. After meeting with members of Iran’s new cabinet, Khamenei said American “threats and possible intervention in Syria are a disaster for the region and if such an act is done, certainly, the Americans will sustain damage like when they interfered in Iraq and Afghanistan.” U.S. military generals have testified several times before Congress that Iran’s elite Quds Force helped to arm, train, and fund the insurgencies that killed American service members in both wars.

The Iranian capacity to carry out terrorist attacks beyond the region, however, has eroded. They got so upset about the killing of their scientists and they embarked on a campaign of terrorist attacks, but almost all their attacks failed.

Following a string of killings of Iranian scientists, Iranian operatives and members of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia closely aligned to Iran, are alleged to have attempted attacks against Israeli targets in Thailand and India. In June, a U.S. district judge sentenced an Iranian-American named Manssor Arbabsiar to 25 years in prison for his role in an Iranian government plot to kill Saudi Arabia’s ambassador in Washington, D.C. Those attacks failed. However, operatives alleged to be working with Hezbollah did succeed in blowing up a bus filled with Israeli tourists in Bulgaria in 2012.

In 2010, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center told Congress that Hezbollah “would likely consider attacks on U.S. interests, to include the homeland, if it perceived a direct threat from the United States to itself or Iran.” He told The Daily Beast that Hezbollah operatives were more likely to be in the United States today than operatives controlled by the core of al Qaeda.
 

It’s unclear whether Hezbollah could succeed, however. “Hezbollah we always considered to be the A team, and that is an organization with global reach and they would try to use resources to attack us,” said former CIA director Michael Hayden. “Whether they could succeed in an attack in the United States is not clear.”
 

U.S. officials have publicly and privately made Iranian interlocutors aware that global terror strikes would be met with “severe” consequences, according to one U.S. official. In March, right before retiring as the chief of U.S. Central Command, Gen. James Mattis told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Iran would be unwise to interpret the reduction of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf as a sign of weakness.

 “I have what it takes to make it the enemy’s longest day and their worst day,” he said at the time. In July, after his retirement, however, Mattis said at an Aspen Institute forum that he was concerned the administration’s response to the 2011 Iranian plot in Washington, D.C., was not stronger.

Pic - "The Administration's case for intervention—Assad's employment of chemical weapons—is flimsy at best."

9 Iron

At the rate chiz is unfolding - looks like Great Satan will be starting in on Syria any day now. Hopefully 44 will go big - taking on creepy time traveling intolerant militias as well as the highest levels of the regime. Tho, to be fair to his Bystander in Chief meme, he may not.

Anywrought, czech the 9 Iron Pillars of what doing Syria will mean...

First, the Syrian government may not be winning. Syrian soldiers and militia are not capable of seizing urban redoubts. If they had the capability to do so, they would not have used chemical weapons. This suggests neither side can sustain an offensive against the other side’s cities, leading to an eventual division of the country.

Second, Syria would not have used chemicals had they respected the resolve of our president when he declared a “red line.” 44’s reputation for leadership — now severely degraded — will be somewhat restored if the strikes are strategically meaningful.

Third, a modest strategy is to prevent any Syrian aircraft from flying and to strike airfields routinely to prevent air resupply from Iran or Russia (plus of course providing weapons and training to selected rebel groups).

Fourth, we should not be more concerned about the terrorists in Syria than we are about terrorists in Lebanon, Pakistan, Somalia, or Yemen. The rewards of deposing the Assad government — cleaving Iran from a client state in the Middle East and diminishing Hezbollah — outweigh the risks of gradual takeover in Syria by Taliban types with no funding and no passports.

Fifth, the incentive among all terrorists for mass murder increases if the Syrian use of chemicals goes without severe punishment. 44 should state the names of those Syrians implicated, a list from Assad on down, and declare they are war criminals and will be hunted down. This act is sure to affect the calculations of all senior officers not (yet) on that list.

Sixth, Iran remains the first-order threat. Its development of a nuclear weapon will cement the growing view of America as feckless. That perception will cause a regional geopolitical paroxysm and a proliferation of nuclear-armed, unstable states. We must view what we do or do not do in Syria with a careful eye on how that affects Iran’s resolve.

Seventh, the credibility of the General Dempsey has diminished. He has asserted that hundreds of ships were needed to strike Syria. Whether he was acting on his own or as the White House messenger in relaying an extreme statement to justify inaction, he has lost face in the region and among the other members of the Joint Chiefs.

Eighth, as true warriors and in defense of their budget, the Air Force will want to be included in the strikes – strategically, the successful employment of American aircraft would rightly concern Iran.

Ninth, Navy’s image will be enhanced by strikes, especially if only four destroyers deliver a hard blow. Iran will be left to ponder its vulnerability.

Pic - "35 places in Syria you don't wanna be for the next few days"

Bash Bashar?

L'Ultimate in precision strikes is of course the Decapitation Strike. Decappin' or as the Canadians say Coup d"grace, in nation state organized violence often means killing the highest levels of command. Or in the case of despotries - THE cat in command.

Would regime killing in Syria be the way to go?

Heck, why not? 

Should 44 decide to order a military strike against Syria, his main order of business must be to kill Bashar Assad. Also, Bashar's brother and principal henchman, Maher. Also, everyone else in the Assad family with a claim on political power. Also, all of the political symbols of the Assad family's power, including all of their official or unofficial residences. The use of chemical weapons against one's own citizens plumbs depths of barbarity matched in recent history only by Saddam Hussein. A civilized world cannot tolerate it. It must demonstrate that the penalty for it will be acutely personal and inescapably fatal.

Maybe this strikes some readers as bloody-minded. Tho tuff to see how a president who ran for his second term boasting about how he "got" ObL—one bullet to the head and another to the heart—has any grounds to quarrel with the concept.

As it is, a strike directed straight at the Syrian dictator and his family is the only military option that will not run afoul of the only red line 44 is adamant about: not getting drawn into a protracted Syrian conflict. And it is the one option that has a chance to pay strategic dividends from what will inevitably be a symbolic action.

One option is to target the Syrian army's stores of chemical weapons, estimated at over 1,000 tons. Last week the Times of Little Satan reported that "the embattled [Assad] regime has concentrated its vast stocks of chemical weapons in just two or three locations . . . under the control of Syrian Air Force Intelligence." If that's right, there's a chance some large portion of Assad's stockpile could be wiped out of existence using "agent-defeat" bombs that first shred chemical storage containers in a rain of metal darts, and then incinerate the chemicals with white phosphorus, preventing them from going airborne.

Still, it's unlikely that airstrikes could destroy all of the regime's chemical stores, which are probably now being moved in anticipation of a strike, and which could always be replenished by Bashar's friends in North Korea and Iran. More to the point, a strike on chemical weapons stocks, while salutary in its own right, does little to hurt the men who ordered their use. Nor does it seriously damage the regime's ability to continue waging war against its own people, if only by conventional means.

Another option would be a strike on the headquarters, air bases and arms depots of the regime's elite Republican Guard, and particularly Maher Assad's Fourth Armored Division, which reportedly carried out last week's attack. But here the problem of asset dispersion becomes that much greater, as fewer tanks, helicopters or jets can be destroyed by a single cruise missile (unit cost: $1.5 million).
Nor is it clear, morally speaking, why the grunts doing the Assad family's bidding should be first in the line of American fire.

And so to the Kill Assad option. On Monday John Kerry spoke with remarkable passion about the "moral obscenity" of using chemical weapons, and about the need to enforce "accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable people." Amen, Mr. Secretary, especially considering that you used to be Bashar's best friend in Washington.

But now those words must be made to mean something, lest they become a piece of that other moral obscenity: the West's hitherto bland indifference to Syria's suffering. Condemnation can no longer suffice. It recalls the international reaction to Mussolini's invasion of Abyssinia, captured by the magazine Punch:

"We don't want you to fight/but by jingo if you do/We will probably issue a joint memorandum/Suggesting a mild disapproval of you." Mussolini went on to conquer the country—using chemical weapons.

The world can ill-afford a reprise of the 1930s, when the barbarians were given free rein by a West that had lost its will to enforce global order. Yes, a Tomahawk aimed at Assad could miss, just as the missiles aimed at Saddam did. But there's also a chance it could hit and hasten the end of the civil war. And there's both a moral and deterrent value in putting Bashar and Maher on the same list that once contained the names of bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki.

There will be other occasions to consider the narrow question of Syria's future. What's at stake now is the future of civilization, and whether the word still has any meaning.

Pic - "On the other hand, maybe we should continue to do nothing and hope for the best"

Syrian Strike

At great risk of getting totally Syrialicious the afore and previously previewed twerking about tact tact tactical delights is indeed upon us!

Great Satan (and Allied) Air Power in and around Suriya al Kubra are quite significant 

In the event the U.S. intervenes in Syria, the opening shots will likely begin with cruise missile bombardments from the sea. But the U.S. has also prepared for a longer conflict, moving fighter aircraft into range by basing them in nearby Jordan. If called upon, they could support intercontinental bombers traveling thousands of miles to drop precision-guided munitions onto Assad’s forces.

Any war with Syria would have an entirely different set of physical constraints — surely being discussed over the next several days as Gen. Martin Dempsey meets in Jordan with generals from 10 nations; just as Assad’s forces attempt to shift the blame for the worst chemical attacks since the 1988 Halabja massacre.

Syria’s population centers and Assad’s military forces are deep inside the country’s interior, unlike Libya

Largely, the Jordanian build-up was carried out under the auspices of the annual Eager Lion war games, which concluded in late June out of the sprawling Mafraq Air Base east of Amman.

Over two weeks, Jordanian and U.S. forces conducted combined-arms exercises — with thousands of ground troops participating from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and the Army’s 1st Armored Division — backed up by M-1 tanks and AH-1 attack helicopters. Meanwhile, fighter aircraft practiced air-to-air combat and trained how to respond in case Syrian fighter pilots attempt to defect.

 

Among these include a squadron of F-16 fighters (a squadron normally comprises between 18 and 24 birds), which are capable of both intercepting Syrian fighters and dropping laser-guided smart bombs and air-to-ground missiles. A Patriot missile battery has been deployed to Jordan

 

Around 1,000 U.S. troops have also remained in the country, forming an advance operations and logistics lilypad in the event of a prolonged air campaign over Syria — waiting to organize and plan for a sudden build-up of strike aircraft and drones

 

 

Another option is basing aircraft at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, which is a short hop away from the Syrian border. The U.S. would also be able to call on six short-range Harrier jump jets aboard the USS Kearsarge, which is believed to be sailing around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba
Turkey has several reasons for supporting tougher action against Syria. The war has forced a surge of refugees across the border into Turkey. Ankara also would like to see Iranian influence curtailed, of which an Assad defeat would be a major blow.

44 might not be willing to push an action in Syria to the point of cruise missile strikes from the sea, let alone escalate to an aerial campaign across the Jordanian border and with bombers launched from South Dakota. But even America’s most limited interventions have a nasty habit of turning into protracted wars.

Pic - “Air power is an unusually seductive form of military strength, in part because, like modern courtship, it appears to offer gratification without commitment"

Syria Time

Suriya al Kubra!

Whale, looks like the clock has plumb ran out of 44"s Bystander In Chief manuever as far as Syrian chiz goes 

44's administration, rightfully concerned about the costs of intervention in Syria, failed to grasp early enough just how much it would cost to stay out of this ugly situation. As the war has dragged on, the humanitarian toll has grown to obscene proportions (far worse than anything that would have happened in Libya without intervention), communal and sectarian hatreds have become poisonous almost ensuring more bloodletting and ethnic and religious cleansing, and instability has spread from Syria into Iraq, Lebanon and even Turkey. All of these problems grow worse the longer the war goes on—but it is becoming harder and costlier almost day by day to intervene.

But beyond these problems, the failure to intervene early in Syria (when "leading from behind" might well have worked) has handed important victories to both the terrorists and the Russia-Iran axis, and has seriously eroded the administration's standing with important allies. Russia and Iran backed Bashar al-Assad; the president called for his overthrow—and failed to achieve it. To hardened realists in Middle Eastern capitals, this is conclusive proof that the American president is irredeemably weak. His failure to seize the opportunity for what the Russians and Iranians fear would have been an easy win in Syria cannot be explained by them in any other way.

Ouch!

In these circumstances, it is the easiest thing to say that, in the case of Syria in particular, there are only bad options. That may be true. But increasingly it may be that there is a worse option: doing nothing

One of the big anti Great Satan LOLs around the begining of Surge time was - Look, we may not be so great at nation building but we are the world history masters of nation destroying

Tactical delights like cruise missiles, air strikes, seizing WMD to unAss Bashar Bay Bee into a war criminal trial, exile or a grave aside - the strategical delights need to be tho't about. 

True enough there are no good options - and 3 little Syrias (with a dash of Kurdistan thrown in) with the resulting sectarian slow bleed may actually be more better than watching mass casualities events like WMD in Damascus suburbs

Pic - "Post War Syria"

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

• *First place with 3 2/3 votes! Joshuapundit –What The Media Won’t Tell You About What’s Really Going On In Egypt
• Second place with 3 1/3 votes – The Noisy Room – Torture and Murder in Tennessee – Why No Movement for These Innocents?
• Third place with 2 votes – The Razor -Elementary School Math
• Fourth place with 1 1/3 votes – The Right Planet-Obama Awards Presidential Medal of Freedom to Bayard Rustin, a Socialist
• Fifth place *t* with 1 vote – The Glittering Eye-Life in a Dog Pack: Old Age
• Fifth place *t* with 1 vote – Nice Deb-TX Congressman on NAACP Request For Rodeo Clown Probe: ‘We Can’t Even Get the DOJ to look at Benghazi!’
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Simply Jews-Erdogan’s shocker: Tzipi Livni and Bernard-Henri Levy deposed Morsi
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Mellow Jihadi-The Art of Caring
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote – GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD –Foreign Policy Playbook

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 1/3 votes! – Via Medea-Bambi Meets Godzilla in the Middle East submitted by The Razor
• Second place with 2 votes – Mark Steyn –Consensus in Egypt submitted by Joshuapundit
• Third place *t* with 1 2/3 votes – Sultan Knish –The Brotherhood’s Currency of Blood submitted by The Noisy Room
• Third place with 1 2/3 votes -Danger Room - How to Fix the Army: Sack All the Generals submitted by The Mellow Jihadi
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote – Daniel Greenfield – Whose side is Obama on? submitted by The Political Commentator
• Fourth place *t* with 1 votes - Kevin D. Williamson/National Review –The Front Man submitted by The Right Planet
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote - The Passing Parade –Phoniness and how to achieve it… submitted by Simply Jews
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Stately McDaniel Manor –Warning: Warning Shots submitted by Bookworm Room
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Zero Hedge –Is China Doomed? submitted by The Watcher
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -John Hayward/The Conversation –The Rodeo Clown Police understand the power of contempt submitted by Nice Deb
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Joshua Foust – The Miranda Detention: Troubling from all Sides submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Michael Ledeen –The Shape of the Global War submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -The College Conservative –TCC’s Guide for Back-To-Campus submitted by Rhymes With Right
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Andrew Klaven –The Sad Fate Of Democrat Women submitted by The Watcher

See you next week! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Kleptocracies

Kleptocrazies are more than unfun - they don't play well with others or each other 

Democratic states enjoy a certain camaraderie among themselves, and despite their shortcomings democracies manage to peacefully coexist. At least, they do not behave like unruly neighbors, tossing beer bottles into each other's yards. But in contrast, there can never be an international brotherhood of kleptocracies.

The very nature of modern authoritarian kleptocracies makes it impossible for them to have meaningful working relationships. Such states are built exclusively upon the principle that the president distributes the country's wealth among his friends. And when two such leaders come together, all they can do is smile all they want for the press and claim to have reached agreement on this or that issue

Pic - "Take it easy on dictators"

Off Shore Control

As Air Sea Battle gets debated, the designer of Off Shore Control makes another case

ASB proponents want our allies to believe that new technology will make Douhet’s elusive goal—airpower defeating an enemy—a reality.

It is clear a critical element of OC is denying the Chinese use of the waters inside the first Island chain. We need not sustain dominance for its own sake, or in irrelevant locations. OC also states Great Satan will defend those allies in the first island chain who choose to join us. So OC and ASB aspire to the same goals with one major exception. OC does not seek to strike tactical targets inside China. Rather OC will apply pressure to the strategic target of China’s economy.

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based on economic growth, major reductions in China’s imports and exports will create major pressure for a solution. Worse, from China’s point of view, is that U.S. control of the seas outside the first island chain means the world economy will begin to rebuild.

 The longer China maintains the conflict, the harder it will be to recover lost trade relationships. It is hard to see how Chinese leaders will simply ignore this kind of economic damage.

The key discussion we must have is about a strategy that preserves our interests in the unlikely event of a conflict with China. It must reassure our friends, stabilize the region—particularly in times of crisis—and allow Great Satan to respond effectively if conflict starts. Such a discussion must include ends, ways and means, both in war and peace. It should be free of assertions that we can achieve a difficult task because we wish to, but delve into the force structure, training, equipment, and budgetary factors that are the basis for a strategy.

Pic - "Off Shore Control"

Stratofortress

Just lucky perhaps, The Wild Blue Yonder cats are prob gon keep Great Satan's forever bomber - the B 52 Stratofortress - forever flying

Despite the bomber's more than half-century of service, the Air Force believes that modifications and overhauls have made the B-52 ageless. Now engineers and technicians are working on a contract worth up to $11.9 billion for an array of upgrades to bring the B-52 Stratofortress fleet into the 21st century.

Conceived in the late 1940's and debuted in 1952 - the B.U.F.F. (Wild Blue Yonder lingo for Big Ugly Fat Fellow) is easily able to adapt and evolve way later in the new millennium

For more than 40 years B-52 Stratofortresses have been the backbone of the manned strategic bomber force for the United States. The B-52 is capable of dropping or launching the widest array of weapons in the U.S. inventory. This includes gravity bombs, cluster bombs, precision guided missiles and joint direct attack munitions. Updated with modern technology the B-52 will be capable of delivering the full complement of joint developed weapons and will continue into the 21st century as an important element of our nation's defenses. Current engineering analyses show the B-52's life span to extend beyond the year 2040.

General Characteristics
Primary Function: Heavy bomber
Contractor: Boeing Military Airplane Co.
Power plant: Eight Pratt & Whitney engines TF33-P-3/103 turbofan
Thrust: Each engine up to 17,000 pounds
Wingspan: 185 feet (56.4 meters)
Length: 159 feet, 4 inches (48.5 meters)
Height: 40 feet, 8 inches (12.4 meters)
Weight: Approximately 185,000 pounds (83,250 kilograms)
Maximum Takeoff Weight: 488,000 pounds (219,600 kilograms)
Fuel Capacity: 312,197 pounds (141,610 kilograms)
Payload: 70,000 pounds (31,500 kilograms)
Speed: 650 miles per hour (Mach 0.84)
Range: 8,800 miles (7,652 nautical miles)
Ceiling: 50,000 feet (15,151.5 meters)
Armament: Approximately 70,000 pounds (31,500 kilograms) mixed ordnance -- bombs, mines and missiles. (Modified to carry air-launched cruise missiles)
Crew: Five (aircraft commander, pilot, radar navigator, navigator and electronic warfare officer)
Unit Cost: $84 million (fiscal 2012 constant dollars)
Initial operating capability: April 1952
Inventory: Active force, 58; ANG, 0; Reserve, 18


Pic - "Cutting Edge"

FoPo Playbook

44"s Foreign Policy Playbook is looking kinda - well - played

As best understood - 44 used 3 Pillars to support a particular World View and alla Policies that go with it 

Demonstrate a willingness to engage directly with those countries that disagreed with America. If Great Satan eschewed the more muscular and aggressive foreign policy practiced by 43, 44 was convinced he could focus on addressing legitimate differences and finding common ground for consensus solutions.

Play a more restrained role in the world, substituting "smart" power like diplomacy and economic aid for the "hard" power of military force. This practice, he believed, would both reduce global tensions and free up resources for "a little nation building right here at home."

Manage more issues through international organizations and agreements. Working through forums like the United Nations, he would join in treaties and conventions to help establish legitimate “rules of the road” for the conduct of international affairs. These structures would, in turn, help mobilize efforts to deal with global challenges from global warming to freedom of the seas.

Alas! Reality doth bite

At the end of the day, it could work only if our adversaries chose to cooperate. It ceded the initiative to the other side and offered no alternative if they choose not play by the doctrine’s rules. Predictably, no one—from Putin to the Taliban—has opted to take up the president's offer. But layering risk-averse policies on top of the doctrine only exacerbates risks, encouraging competitors to press their advantage.

The problem is that every pillar upon which 44's Doctrine rested seems unable to bear any weight. No longer confident in his approach, the leader of the free world has become intensely risk-averse in his second term.

Meanwhile, his foreign-policy and national-security teams are left floundering.

Pic - "Nowhere is our inability to grasp the realities of Middle-Eastern politics more obvious than in our self-deceiving attitude towards the theocracy in Iran"

Suez Stuff

While 44 cancelled the Great Satan -  Aegypt military exercise known as Bright Star, cats seem divy'd over keeping up the 1.5 or so billion bucks to the Coupmaking caretaking Military Gov

Nork City Great Satan Fans editorialized a Realpolitik style bit pointing out the Military is the best bet to coincide with Great Satan's material interests namely:

Free passage through the Suez Canal; the suppression of insurgents throughout the country, especially the Sinai; and, most important, maintenance of the peace treaty with the Little Satan. The military has always been an acceptable guarantor of those objectives, and any government led by the Muslim Brotherhood would not be, out of incompetence and hostility.

While this clarian call doesn't go far enough in expressing ideals that Great Satan should and must use whatever influ she has to keep the military towards stability AND caretake Aegypt's generational trek to a fun and free choice egalitarian society with a free, uncensored press, freedom of religion, periodic, transparent elections, a military under civilian control, an independent judiciary under elected gov oversight and a nat'l treasury under public scrutiny

Mantaining Writ of State in Sinai and taking a break from tormenting girls with V Checks would be a bonus perhaps - yet that is just another reason why cause Great Satan should embrace the Military regime in a deathly bear hug

Pic - "That’s what’s in Egypt’s future right now—persistent civil strife between the military and its supporters on one side and the Brotherhood and its supporters on the other."

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers currently celebrating the Council's 10 year anniversary!

Ten years ago, the original Watcher had an idea. Blogging carnivals, featuring posts from different bloggers were all the rage then, but our illustrious Founder had a different idea. Instead of a haphazard and changing bunch of contributors every week he put together the concept of a set membership, a Watcher’s Council that would promote the best in the blogosphere, week in and week out…a group that would become a community rather than just a collection of random links.

It worked, and the fact that it’s lasted so long is worth looking at. It’s both the quality of the writers and the quality of the people involved.

Ten years is an eternity in the world of the internet.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

• *First place with 3 votes! The Noisy Room –Capsizing the Republic – Cloward and Piven on the Southern Border
• Second place with 1 2/3 votes – Liberty’s Spirit – These are the times that try men’s souls..
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – Bookworm Room- Of Norway, petrodollars, free education, etc.
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – Joshuapundit- The Celebration Of The Rattlesnakes
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – Simply Jews- Apple vs Samsung: he said, she said, so what will Obama do now?
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 vote – VA Right! -ObamaCare Intent Revealed – Single Payer Ultimate Goal and Why Our Current (old) System Was Better
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote – The Mellow Jihadi- For the love of Ginger
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote – Nice Deb –Overpasses for Obama’s Impeachment – Missouri Represents
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote – The Razor –You Know Your Cause is Lost When Your Action Plan Includes Disrupting Funerals
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Right Planet –Florida State Capitol Displays Mural of George Zimmerman Shooting Trayvon Martin
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Political Commentator – Conservatives, Tea Party and GOP: Can we find some way to get along just a little bit?

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 2/3 votes! – Mark Steyn-Know Thine Enemysubmitted by The Noisy Room
• Second place with 2 1/3 votes – Daniel Schwammenthal/WSJ –The Mufti Of Berlin submitted by The Watcher
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – War On The Rocks –The Wrong Debate: Reflections On Counterinsurgency submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes -Walid Shoebat- Does Jailed Brotherhood leader have goods on Obama? submitted by The Right Planet
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes – David Gerstman/Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion -Does John Kerry worry about a Palestine that reveres such monsters as the murderer of Nissim Toledano? submitted by Liberty’s Spirit
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes -Blazing Cat Fur –Toronto Masjid Conducting Prison Da’wah Throughout North America Hates You, Your Society, Your Religion & High Heels submitted by Simply Jews
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote - Techdirt.com –Jennifer Hoelzer’s Insider’s View Of The Administration’s Response To NSA Surveillance Leaks submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote -John Sexton, The Conversation –Lois Lerner Discusses Political Pressure on the IRS in 2010 submitted by Nice Deb
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote -The Jewish Review Of Books –What Jesus Wasn’t: Zealot submitted by The Colossus of Rhodey
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote-Patterico’s Pontifications –Pelosi’s Faux and Feigned Outrage submitted by Rhymes With Right
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Walter Williams – Black Self-Sabotage submitted by The Watcher
• Fifth place with 1/3 vote -EAG News – Father of molested student talks about his outrage toward seven teachers who supported the rapist submitted by VA Right!

See you next week! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

The Curse Of Sykes - Picot

All the cool kids know the modern Middle East is not so modern. Wicked winners of the 1st World War split up the deader than ObL Ottoman Empire into tons of nation states and redrew demarcating demarcations over tribes, ppl and places.

The olde Sykes Picot manuever.

Arab world is breaking apart, and that what may emerge are new states defined by sect or ethnicity to replace those drawn up by the imperial powers almost a century ago

Arab states, almost by definition, have embodied the failure of integration in the Arab world. Since independence they have been dysfunctional, authoritarian, over-militarized and economically underdeveloped. Unity has been imposed from above, usually brutally, with no tolerance for dissent, whether political or cultural. Leaders who led such countries were viewed with a mixture of distaste and respect for ruthlessly managing the complex dynamics of their societies.
There is a sense among many in the West, weaned on a diet of anti-imperial historiography, that as Sykes-Picot was an imperial arrangement, its consequences must have no real legitimacy in the Arab world today. But that’s not true. The Arabs guard their imperially created boundaries jealously. Breaking up a state remains a path many hesitate to take. In Arab nationalist ideology, the political destiny of the Arabs is to join together in larger political entities, until a single Arab state is formed.

Arab nationalism is a dream of unification, not fragmentation, and it retains an intellectual hold on societies that do not wish to define themselves primarily through a sectarian prism.

Does this mean Arab states will remain unified, at least officially? Political and geographical unity often clash with the reality of sectarian or ethnic division. Arab states are destined to wrestle with this contradiction for some time to come, as a substitute for formal separation. The inheritance of Sykes-Picot may be poisoned and discredited, but it is also far from dead.

Pic - "Ultimately, democracy relies on an implicit quid pro quo among contending groups, according to which each agrees to protect the others' rights in exchange for recognition of its entitlement to govern should it win an election."

Rethinking 5th Fleet

One of several choking chokable choke points in the world's ebb and flow of maritime trade and lifelines is that Hormuz Straight thing.

And perhaps the one thing that keeps it open is Great Satan"s Fifth Fleet. Currently deploying 2 Air craft carrier battle groups - 5th Fleet has tremendous might on hand. For now. That sequestration thing is gon whittle 5th Fleet down to one carrier group for fiscal year 2014

So...time to Rethink 5th Fleet? 

Critics should take a deep breath and welcome the opportunity provided by the difficult fiscal realities to rethink America’s military presence and strategy in the Persian Gulf. It’s time to restructure America’s Navy presence in the Gulf to be stronger yet cheaper. It’s not the number of carriers that will affect U.S. plans and collective interests in the region but the strategy that America will employ in the troubled waters of the Gulf. The essence of this strategy must focus on building a Fifth Fleet that emphasizes small, agile platforms and greater military cooperation with regional allies.

The narrow Persian Gulf is one such area in which carriers are, comparatively speaking, a less than ideal choice. Therefore, the Navy’s decision last month to deploy a fleet of patrol coastal ships, or PC ships, to the Gulf should be praised

The carrier’s ill suitability in a Persian Gulf fight stems from the geographic features of the region -- particularly the Strait of Hormuz -- and Iran’s declared military strategy in the event of conflict. Iran’s strategy allegedly features layered attacks involving naval mines, fast-attack craft and anti-ship cruise missiles. Iranian forces can deploy an arsenal of over 2,000 mines to slow down U.S. naval assets operating in the Strait. This tactic facilitates the targeting of U.S. surface ships through “swarming attacks” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’ fleet of small, fast-attack craft, armed with torpedoes, rocket launchers and other anti-ship weaponry. IRGC forces could preposition these small craft at the hundreds of “littoral launching points” that surround the Gulf, including small islands and coves, providing cover that would enable surprise attacks at short distances.

Concurrently, Iranian forces could begin launching land-based, anti-ship cruise missiles, taking advantage of slow-moving U.S. vessels to better target ships. The most lethal of Iran’s anti-ship weaponry, the Russian-made Sunburn missiles, fly at three times the speed of sound and can cruise as low as twenty meters from the ground, performing evasive maneuvers to effectively engage its target. In the Strait of Hormuz, only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, the Sunburn could reach any ship in minutes. Conducting counterforce strikes against these missile launchers, most of which are mobile, would be difficult and lengthy as Iran is advantaged by a mountainous shore facing the Gulf. The terrain provides easy cover and concealment of cruise-missile launching sites and ideal vantage points for targeting enemy ships.

In short, the relative narrowness of the Gulf would enable Iranian forces to overcome many of the advantages provided by the technological superiority of U.S. forces in the areas of surveillance and targeting. In these confined waters, engagements between Iranian and U.S. forces would transpire at very close ranges.

Deploying the PC ship with Griffin short-range missiles represents a fundamental change in how the U.S. would approach a Strait of Hormuz contingency strategy. Under the widely discussed Littoral Combat Ship program, Navy officials have spoken of a “plug-and-play” approach in which individual ships are outfitted with different sensors and weaponry depending on the specific threats they will confront in their operating environments. This approach represents the right strategy for a Strait of Hormuz contingency. Instead of relying on large, expensive ships to carry out all of these missions, the Navy can effectively disperse these capabilities and hence limit the costs of losses incurred during conflict.

PC ships make sense politically and promote deeper defense cooperation with U.S. allies in the region that maintain small navies dominated by comparably small ships. This would facilitate real burden sharing with partners in the region, permitting individual navies to specialize in particular missions such as anti-mining operations. They would save money, too.

Despite the advantages of the new PC fleet deployment, critics may argue that in pulling a carrier from the Strait, the U.S. would experience a marked decline in its ability to quickly deploy air power in the Gulf. To be sure, absent a carrier presence in the Strait, generating a high number of tactical sorties in a conflict with Iran would be more difficult. But a comprehensive assessment of a prospective strike against Iran indicates that forward-deployed air forces could handle the demands of the operation. Furthermore, the Navy’s ability to generate a large number of sorties should be secondary to ensuring the survivability of its most expensive platform.

The most powerful deterrent is not always the priciest or the biggest. A new U.S. naval strategy focused on lightness, agility, and closer cooperation with allied partners, will best guarantee crisis stability in the Gulf. Time will tell whether the Navy’s decision represents a true strategic shift. On the one hand, this move may simply reflect the tough choices demanded by sequestration. Senior Navy officials may find the PC sufficient for deterrence, but could enact very different deployment strategies in wartime. The reality, however, is that the PC is good for both. Policymakers should embrace these changes, regardless of what prompted them. And at a fraction of the price, the Navy can have its cake and eat it too.

Pic - "The Navy’s newest warships are hard to detect on radar, heavily armed with super-accurate guns and missiles … and gigantic."

Aegypt"s Failed State

Ikwhan!!

Is girl hating Aegypt fixing to hop into the Failed State pit?

Sho am lookit!!

Today, a democratic transition that the West sought to portray as a model that other Arab nations could emulate lies in tatters. Egypt’s economy, bruised by the outflow of foreign investment and a dearth of tourists, is on life support. Rebuilding the country will require much more than the cheering from the sidelines that Western countries have offered so far.

 

Egypt has always relied on munificent benefactors to sustain its patchy state and economy. After the military coup in 1952, the Soviets provided much of the needed aid. Their “technical” experts turned the country’s second city, Alexandria, into a Russian country club. After Egypt pivoted to the West in the wake of the 1973 war against Israel, America became its main patron.

 

But America’s ritual annual gift of roughly $1.5 billion could only dull the pain of Egypt’s problems, not resolve them. The country can no longer provide enough government stipends in the form of bureaucratic posts for college graduates. Egypt can only hope for cash infusions to offset its internal hemorrhaging.

 

By making aid conditional on economic reform and democratic transition, however, the international community risks political triage. It should instead focus on financial assistance that blunts Egyptians’ frustrations and that contributes to building the institutions that will facilitate the transition toward democracy.

 

Of the $1.56 billion that the US State Department requested for Egypt in 2013, only $250 million is earmarked for non-military programs. The US should increase funding for projects that focus on governance, civil society, and strengthening the rule of law. Such programs receive a paltry $25 million in the 2013 budget.

 

To bolster the economy, the US needs to shift its aid policies away from funding projects toward providing immediate budgetary relief. Though financing water-efficiency schemes certainly helps society, its effects are felt years after the aid is initially dispensed.

 

The US, and other Western donors, should instead help Egypt to husband its resources, which are often misspent in an effort to placate its people. Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world, and food subsidies account for approximately 2% of GDP. To preserve its precious foreign-currency reserves, Egypt needs the US and its allies to provide foodstuffs. Such a policy was adopted in the aftermath of the 1973 war, when America offered $200 million annually for wheat procurement. Embracing such policies will give institutions and the democratic process the time and space they need to plant firm roots.

 

Beyond such questions lies the fate of democracy in one of civilization’s most ancient lands. Whoever triumphs in future elections will lack the legitimacy that only a majority can provide. Such a majority spoke last year, when it elected Morsi. To strip him of his post negates a basic pillar of democracy and sets a dangerous precedent.

 

In a country that faces so many problems, the paradox of Morsi’s removal from power and the dilemmas of democracy that occasioned it are not among them.

 

Pic - "This is unlikely to be simply a procedure like free elections. Rather, it could be a principle: separation of state and religion"

Ulchi Freedom Guardian

It's time!

Ulchi Freedom Guardian is fixing to get all crunk up on the Korean peninsula. 

Defensive drills aimed at preparing for a full-scale invasion by North Korea and are based on computer-assisted simulations, with little actual movement of personnel or equipment.

Some 30,000 U.S. troops from the U.S. Forces Korea and U.S. mainland will join 50,000 South Korean troops from several Army corps, naval fleets, and air wings.

This year's drill will also be observed by Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, New Zealand, Norway and the U.K., which were part of the UN forces during the 1950-53 Korean War.

Long shot perhaps - yet it may provide stimuli for NoKo and her Young General to act out and continue her 3 part juche habit of brinkmanship, charm offensive, and renewed provocation, thus

Providing North Korea with her latest pretext for testing the patience of Great Satan and South Korea. Certainly, the North Korean system’s seemingly inherent need for instability—and the frustrations of its current situation—provide every reason to be on guard against new provocative actions by North Korea

Pic - "The masters of the revolution and construction are the masses of the people and that they are also the motive force of the revolution and construction."

al Qaeda's Government Rules

Beleaf it of don't - al Qaeda has estabb"d rules for governing...

In what reads like a lesson plan for the less-experienced jihadist, Nasser al-Wahishi provides a step-by-step assessment of what worked and what didn't in Yemen. Yet in the rare correspondence discovered by the Associated Press, the man at the center of the latest terror threat barely mentions the extremist methods that have transformed his organization into al-Qaeda's most dangerous branch.

Instead, he urges his fellow jihadist whose fighters had just seized Mali's northern half to show compassion toward the population. He stresses the importance of providing them with potable water and electricity. And he offers tips for making garbage collection more efficient.

"Try to win them over through the conveniences of life," he writes. "It will make them sympathize with us and make them feel that their fate is tied to ours."

The letters and an accompanying report, written last summer and discovered by the AP in Mali earlier this year, provide a perhaps surprising outline of the vision of the 30-something al-Wahishi, a former secretary to Osama bin Laden, whose recently intercepted communication with al-Qaeda supreme chief Ayman al-Zawahri caused the U.S. to shutter 19 embassies and consulates. Experts who were shown the letters say the hearts-and-minds approach al-Wahishi is advocating is a sign of a broader shift within al-Qaeda, which has come to understand in the wake of its failure in Iraq that it is not enough to win territory: They must also learn to govern it if they hope to hold it.

Al-Qaida’s foray into governance in Yemen began on the morning of Feb. 28, 2011, when residents of the locality of Jaar woke up to find an ominous black flag flying over their town.

Fearing the worst, the population was mystified to discover that their extremist occupiers appeared more interested in public works projects, than in waging war.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula chronicled their achievements in 22 issues of an online newsletter and in propaganda films showing glowing light bulbs and whirring fans inside the homes of villagers who had never had power before. In one video, al-Qaida fighters are seen leaning ladders against power poles and triumphantly yelling “Allah Akbar,” or “God is great,” each time they connect a downed wire. They took time to write a detailed report, a kind of al-Qaida ‘case study’ on their occupation, which al-Wahashi dutifully enclosed with his letter, like a college professor giving a handout to a student.

Pic - "The Last Refuge"

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

First place with 3 1/3 votes! Joshuapundit –Ropes Of Sand – Why The Latest Round Of MidEast ‘Peace Talks’ Will End In Failure

Second place with 2 1/3 votes – Bookworm Room -Government of the people, by the people, and for the people has perished in America

Third place with 2 votes – The Right Planet-Smashing ‘The Establishment’ Meme

Fourth place with 1 2/3 votes – The Noisy Room-Waking Up To War

Fifth place with 1 1/3 votes – The Razor-What a Survey of 1,400 Sued Doctors Can Tell Us About Health Care Reform

Sixth place with 1 vote – The Political Commentator-Scandal Obama-style: A cross between the ‘Rope-a-Dope’ and the ‘Four Corners Stall Offense’!

Seventh place *t* with 2/3 vote – Simply Jews- Nothing as open as Open Zion or Ali Gharib for Hassan Rouhani

Seventh place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Colossus of Rhodey – Orson Scott Card vs. Roman Polanski

Seventh place *t* with 2/3 vote – VA Right! –Washington Post Sold to Libertarian. Will it Make a Difference?

Seventh place *t* with 2/3 vote – Nice Deb –Extortion 17: Navy SEAL’s Dad Hammers Regime: “THEY SET UP MY SON TO BE EXECUTED” (Audio)

Eighth place *t* with 1/3 vote –Rhymes With Right – How Long Until This Sort Of Gay Marriage Litigation Comes To America?

Eighth place *t* with 1/3 vote – Liberty’s Spirit – The Israeli-Palestinian Peace push Ignores Reality

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 2/3 votes! – Michael Gurfinkiel/Mosaic Magazine -You Only Live Twice. Is there a future for Jewish communities in Europe? submitted by Liberty’s Spirit
• Second place *t* with 2 1/3 votes – Villainous Company –Racism, Conversations, and the Sound of One Hand Clapping submitted by Joshuapundit
• Second place *t* with 2 1/3 votes – The Chronicle Of Higher Education –When Hollywood Held Hands With Hitler submitted by The Colossus Of Rhodey
• Third place with 1 2/3 votes -War Is Boring -The Navy’s New Stealth Battleships submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote Caroline Glick -Bibi and the true believer submitted by The Noisy Room
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote - Abu Muqawama –Banquo in Bandit Country submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote - CIF Watch – CiF asks Palestinian supporter of ‘armed resistance’ her views on the peace process submitted by Simply Jews
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Doug Ross @ Journal –BOMBSHELL REPORT: Valerie Jarrett Gave the Orders on 9/11/2012 and Blocked Rescue in Benghazi submitted by VA Right!
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Seraphic Secret –The New-Old Jew-Haters of the European Union submitted by The Watcher
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Victor Davis Hanson –Obama’s Watergates submitted by The Watcher
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Elbert Guillory –Elbert Guillory Announces the Free at Last PAC submitted by Bookworm Room
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Lame Cherry – Is Obama Sunni or Shia Muslim? submitted by The Right Planet
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Alan Colmes Liberaland – How Liberals Have It Wrong About Rush And Sean submitted by Rhymes With Right
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -White House Dossier – Obama is at Two Dozen Scandals and Counting submitted by Nice Deb
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Amil Imani –The Challenge of Racism submitted by The Mellow Jihadi

See you next week! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter