Thursday, November 8, 2012

Short List

Spoils System!!

Now that electile dysfunction season is ahind us again - who all reckon may hook up with 44"s Posse in Diplopolititary deigns and decisions?

The short list appears as follows:

DEFSEC

Michèle Flournoy
Flournoy had been the highest ranking woman at the Pentagon and was considered an early contender to succeed Defense Secretary Robert Gates last year. As the No. 3 official from 2009 to 2012, she advised Gates and his successor, Leon Panetta, in the formulation of national security and defense policy and had oversight of military plans and operations. With a strong background in defense academia and defense policy analysis, she co-founded the Center for a New American Security, a defense-oriented think tank, and was also senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies as well as a professor at the National Defense University. Flournoy would be the first woman named to the top job, and would bring a sharp and critical mind to the position with the ability to see the small and big picture of how the military should operate post-Iraq and Afghanistan. Flournoy was an adviser on the most recent Obama campaign.

Ashton Carter
Carter is currently the Pentagon's No. 2 official as chief deputy to Secretary Leon Panetta. Prior to this, he headed weapons procurement as under secretary for acquisition, technology and logistics from April 2009 to October 2011. In that role, Carter was most noted for accelerating the urgent need for vehicles that protected troops from roadside bombs in Iraq. Carter is considered a top defense-oriented academic mind with stints at Harvard’s Kennedy school and as co-director of the Preventive Defense Project. In the 42nd administration, he was an assistant secretary at the Pentagon for international security policy. Some liken his leadership thinking to William Cohen, one of 42's defense secretaries who focused on internal operations rather than global perspectives. With upcoming budget cuts and shifting focus away from the last two wars, Obama will need somebody to guide that change in Pentagon thinking.

Sam Nunn
Nunn was a Democratic senator from Georgia from 1972-1997 and his name has been bounced around as a candidate for the top Pentagon job in numerous administrations. At 74, Nunn’s name is still out there. While in the Senate, Nunn championed defense issues and served as chairman of the Armed Services Committee and is well versed on the politics and operations of the Pentagon. He played a key role in getting landmark legislation passed in the 1980s that reorganized how the military operates and fights. He also helped to create a program that helps Russia and former Soviet republics secure and eliminate excess nuclear weapons. After leaving Congress, Nunn joined a bipartisan think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and continued with efforts to reduce nuclear weapons.

Chuck Hagel
A highly decorated Vietnam War Veteran, Hagel was a Republican senator from Nebraska from 1997-2009 where he was a member of the Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees. In 2008, he was rumored to be on 44's short list for defense secretary in his first term. A Hagel pick then would have illustrated 44’s willingness to reach across party lines for a big role in his administration. Hagel is currently a chairman of the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank that focuses on international affairs, and a professor at George Washington University.

Colin Powell
Still an icon within the military ranks, he served as the first African-American chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the 1991 Gulf War. That’s where he gained much of his notoriety as the highest ranking member of the military and a strong presidential adviser. After retiring from the military, Powell focused on more social issues, starting America's Promise which pushed for advancing children's issues.

Under 43, he was the first African American secretary of state from 2001 to 2005. After the September 2001 attacks, Powell built an international coalition of countries to support the U.S. role in the war on terrorism. There is little doubt Powell would be a home-run pick because of his credentials and his ability to navigate the political and civilian-military demands of the top job. A question mark, however, is whether Powell’s role in making the case for invading Iraq – publicly backing evidence that was later discredited – would hobble his chances.

SECRETARY OF STATE

John Kerry
The most frequently mentioned possible successor is the 2004 Democratic nominee for president. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2009, Kerry has been heavily involved with the U.S. response to the Arab Spring revolutions – most prominently the civil war in Syria. Kerry has also played a role in U.S. relations with Pakistan, having traveled there to mend fences after a series of incidents, including the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, set back relations. As head of the committee that questions diplomatic nominees, Kerry interacted with those heading U.S. embassies.

Susan Rice
As U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Rice is steeped in almost every foreign policy issue facing the United States. From the Palestinian bid for statehood to pushing Russia and China to support a strong resolution on Syria at the Security Council, Rice has been an important figure on national security. Her role, however, in the early attempt to explain circumstances surrounding the deadly terror attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, was criticized by some in Congress as the description of events changed, and could pose a problem at any confirmation hearing.

Tom Donilon
As national security adviser, Donilon is the president’s top aide on those issues and is widely regarded for his managerial skills. His name repeatedly comes up in Democratic foreign policy circles as a possible secretary of state. A lawyer and a former senior official at Fannie Mae, Donilon joined 44's campaign in 2008 as an adviser on foreign policy and helped prepare him for those presidential debates. Donilon is a protégé of former Secretary of State Warren Christopher.

NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR

Denis McDonough
As the current deputy national security adviser, McDonough is a longtime foreign policy adviser to 44 going back to his days as a U.S. Senator from Illinois. If current National Security Adviser Tom Donilon were nominated for secretary of state or decided to leave the administration, many have said McDonough likely would be likely promoted. McDonough's first role in the administration was deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, and then was chief of staff for the National Security Council. McDonough travels frequently overseas on behalf of the Obama administration, most recently to Iraq and Afghanistan to discuss bilateral issues.

Susan Rice (see Secretary of State)

DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

James Clapper
The word on the street is that James Clapper will likely leave the job he has held for more than two years, but it's no sure thing. If he does go, his possible replacement might be:


James Cartwright
After 40 years in the military, the four-Marine Corps general retired last year, last serving as the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the second highest position in the military. In that role, he developed a close relationship with 44 and has been referred to as his favorite general. Nicknamed "Hoss," Cartwright also lead the U.S. Strategic Command and is said to be a master of complex technical issues. After leaving the military, he joined CSIS as an expert in defense policy and serves on the Defense Policy Review Board, which provides advice to the defense secretary.

C.I.A.

P4
As the current director, Petraeus is expected to stay in the job he has described as one in which he is "living the dream." The retired four-star general had a distinguished 37 year career in the military, helping turn the tide against insurgencies while he served as commander of forces in Iraq and then Afghanistan. He has won the praise of both Democrats and Republicans alike. He took the helm of the CIA in September 2011. And unlike his time in senior military positions, he has kept a low key profile.

Pic - "Still reeling from his administration’s botched handling of the deadly terrorist attacks on  diplomatic targets in Libya, 44 is no doubt seeking a deft and versatile replacement to guard and advance Great Satan"s interests in a volatile Middle East, where creeping fundamentalism undermines longstanding influence."

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/07/3905726/in-2nd-term-obamas-first-foreign.html#storylink=cpy

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

44"s FoPo Forecast

Whale, since FoPo didn"t seem to matter much in since FoPo didn"t seem to matter much in 44"s re election it doesn"t hurt (too much) to take a gander ahead

Afghanistan
44"s 1st term it was the surge of forces that dominated the headlines. In his next term it will be the withdrawal of Ally combat forces - due to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014. This inevitably presents complex political and logistical hurdles. How much of a withdrawal will it actually be?

On present planning assumptions, considerable numbers of US and allied troops may remain to help train Afghan forces or to carry out certain specialised roles. In Iraq such plans evaporated. The new Iraqi authorities simply did not want the Americans there.

Afghanistan may well be different, but the run-up to the 2014 withdrawal could be bumpy if so-called "green-on-blue" killings of Nato personnel by their Afghan allies accelerate.

Public opinion  could turn against any significant long-term presence.

Land of the Pure
The PAK in AFPAK facing the Afghanistan UnAssing, relations with Pakistan will remain crucial for Washington. Over recent years, US-Pakistan ties have oscillated between bad and worse. But this remains in many ways the key relationship in what used to be called Washington's "war on terror".

Pakistan is seen by many analysts as a failing state. It may not actually collapse, but its dysfunctionality remains a powerful source of instability in the region. But President Obama will have to manage relations with Islamabad as best he can.

Look out for US efforts to strengthen its links with India, a bilateral relationship which, for all the talk over recent years, has not developed into quite the strategic partnership that many in Washington once wished for

Iran
With a Little Satan strike against Iran's nuclear facilities delayed, the outgoing 44 won an additional period for economic sanctions to take effect. These are now having some impact, though the jury is out as to how far Iran's economic woes are caused by sanctions and how much by their own government's mismanagement.

Ahead of the presidential election there were tantalising hints that Iran was eager to pursue direct talks with the United States. Might this offer a genuine breakthrough, or would this simply be another way for Tehran to try to spin out the process and potentially divide the coalition of countries backing sanctions?

Little Satan too goes to the polls - in late January. A new government could emerge there even more strongly committed to the idea of striking Iran. There is little warmth between 44 and BiBi. Managing this relationship will be a crucial test for the president, who may have to deal with the consequences of any Israeli action. It could have a profound impact on relations between Great and Little Satan. Furthermore, if sanctions are seen to be failing or if the Iranians miscalculate, then it cannot be ruled out that 44 himself may have to make a fateful choice on potential US military action against Iran.

ME
For all the talk of the Asia pivot, the Middle East will inevitably occupy a fair share of the next president's time. Containing the overspill of the Syria crisis will remain a key strategic goal, as will containing Iran. However, it is hard to see any grand initiatives emerging in policy towards the region, nor is it clear if there will be any attempt to revive the moribund peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.

This is a region that will remain in crisis for perhaps decades to come, torn by sectarian, tribal and religious tensions, in many places underscored by failing economies, a huge youth bulge, and a scarcity of both jobs and basic resources.

Clearly relationships with Egypt and the Saudis will continue to be the central pillars of its approach to the Arab world. But events involving Iran or Israel and the Palestinians could easily provoke crises at a time when Arab public opinion is perhaps more powerful, but the ability of Arab governments to deliver is even more constrained.

One crucial test for the next president's foreign policy team is to try to distinguish between different forms of Polislam in politics and establish constructive relationships with those groups willing to engage with the West.

Collectivist China
Is China an adversary of Great Satan, a potential partner, or both? How to square strategic competition with the intimate economic relationship between the two powers that, to an extent, underscores the prosperity of both?

Managing relations with Beijing will depend significantly on how the new leadership there decides to frame its foreign policy. Chinese assertiveness in maritime disputes with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam have provoked tensions and have encouraged many countries in the region to welcome Washington's pivot or re-balancing towards Asia.

But there is a danger that this could trigger a more abrasive and competitive relationship between DC and Beijing. Leading Chinese experts tend to see America's strategic goal as containing China's rise and view Washington's actions through this prism. Strategic competition thus becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Experts say Great Satan must encourage her allies to do more in responding to China's rise, but as one expert put it: "When it comes to Asia, Great Satan does not have the option of leading from behind."

NoKo
North Korea's unpredictable regime has a tendency to provoke crises, be it the shelling of South Korean territory or potentially a new nuclear test. Little progress has been made over recent years in re-establishing international diplomatic efforts to try to grapple with Pyongyang's nuclear programme.

After considerable instability due to the succession of a new leader in Pyongyang, will there be any margin for a resumption of diplomacy? Or will the Korean Peninsula splutter into crisis at a time when 44 has his attention on problems elsewhere?

Russia
Russia remains an essentially regional power rather than the global ideological and military force it became during the Cold War. In his second term as president, 44 is likely to eschew grand policies like the famous - and to an extent abortive - "re-set" with Moscow, in favour of a more pragmatic approach, seeking agreement where possible.
And now perhaps the most chaotic, unpredictable spots of all- The Ungoverned Places
This remains a serious general problem for foreign policy, be it the microcosm of the Sinai peninsula or the growing crisis radiating out from Mali. Ungoverned space leaves a political vacuum into which all sorts of forces may flow. The prime threat from al-Qaeda today comes from franchises or offshoots of the organisation quartered in places like Yemen or the Slamic Maghreb, in Africa. Instability elsewhere in the region, the collapse of Syria or the return to crisis in parts of Iraq could all draw in al-Qaeda-inspired groups who might establish bases in this lawless terrain.

Pic - "The biggest foreign policy issue of them all"

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Britannia Rex

Bloody L!

Of 193 countries in UN, Great Britain has invaded or fought conflicts with 171.

Check just a few:

* Cuba, where in 1741, a force under Admiral Edward Vernon stormed ashore at Guantánamo Bay. He renamed it Cumberland Bay, before being forced to withdraw in the face of hostile locals and an outbreak of disease among his men. Twenty one years later, Havana and a large part of the island fell to the British after a bloody siege, only to be handed back to the Spanish in 1763, along with another unlikely British possession, the Philippines, in exchange for Florida and Minorca.

*Iceland, invaded in 1940 by the British after the neutral nation refused to enter the war on the Allies side. The invasion force, of 745 marines, met with strong protest from the Iceland government, but no resistance.

* Vietnam, which has experienced repeated incursions by the British since the seventeenth century. The most recent – from 1945 to 1946 – saw the British fight a campaign for control of the country against communists, in a war that has been overshadowed by later conflicts involving first the French and then Americans.  

Included are Great Britain"s rowdy, privateering pirates days that saw raiding Ops on the Spanish Main like Costa Rica, Ecuador and El Salvador.

The only nation/states Great Britain never hit on are

Andorra
Belarus
Bolivia
Burundi
Central African Republic
Chad
Congo, Republic of
Guatemala
Ivory Coast
Kyrgyzstan
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Mali
Marshall Islands
Monaco
Mongolia
Paraguay
Sao Tome and Principe
Sweden
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Vatican City 

Pic - "To Rule the Waves!"


Monday, November 5, 2012

"Lection Day!!

Vote Early! Vote Often!!

Just t"zing

This is it! THE day! 

Enroute to one of several sacred places here in this corner of Hillbillyland, there was no escaping the fact that voting way more than a right.

It is a priviledge.

Trekking thru spots in Great Satan's history where bloody desperate battles were fought in a most uncivilwar between Americans, streets named after combatants from both sides - Longstreet, Wilder, Crittenden, Sherman is an instant time machine that spans American sacrifice through out her admittedly short yet very exciting, rowdy and globe stomping existence.

Voting is the ultimate homage to Americans who stood long watches on ramparts far away. Americans who put their lives on hold to travel far far away to kill our enemies - many never returned - those who did built this awesome nation - uniquely powerful - the only one of her kind!

From Bunker Hill to Midway, from Chickamauga to Marjah the blood shed in sacrifice for ideals greater than self - ideals that changed and challenge the world was not, is not and shall not be shed in vain.

Pic - "Voting is using Force. And Force is Violence - the Supreme Authority - from which all authority is derived."

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Win Friends And Influ Ppl


In the essential flick "9th Gate" the bibliophile merc portrayed by Cap"n Jack Sparrow tracks down the Dark Art work by the alleged author Aristead d"Torchia  and the dreaded De Umbrarum Regni Novem Portis - co authored by the Devil 

Treking about exotic locales in old Europa and onboard the Lisbon/Paris overnight train he runs into the Devil herself reading "Winning Friends and Influencing People"  

Can such cinematic combobulation segue sexyfully into the new millennium"s diplopolititary? 

Oui oui m"suer!!

Since the horrible days of 911, Great Satan has - seemingly - been constantly griped at about the need to buddy up to certain elements betwixt Suez and Indus. 

Like this latest from an Ex Land of the Pure diplomat weeping about Drones Gone Wild and the need for Great Satan to do more to recruit homies
Al-Qaeda and allies, the Taliban, have been neither decisively defeated nor forced to the negotiating table. The emergence of democratic governments in the greater Middle East has offered Great Satan opportunities to help its ideological allies confront the Islamist narrative of victimhood and revenge. Instead, the dictates of Great Satan politics have reaffirmed that narrative. 

Drones Gone Wild!!  fails to take into account how drones and other remote tactics are used to encourage extremism among the world’s 1.6 billion m"Hammedists. Ideologically motivated radicals can recruit, train and regroup even after their leaders have been killed in drone strikes. And the American aversion to long wars fits into ObL’s prediction that Great Satan would withdraw from the greater Middle East rather than stay and fight.

The ideology of "Slamist revivalism, rooted in a culture of grievance and victimhood, remains powerful. Newly elected Islamist governments in some Arab countries, such as Egypt, will most likely fuel hatred of the West as a substitute for economic and social success, just as Iran has done since its 1979 revolution. This, in turn, will continue to produce a steady flow of terrorists ready to kill Americans.

Using drones to find and kill al-Qaeda leaders already known to intelligence will not end the war, either. Eventually, Great Satan will have to find m"Hammedist allies who help limit the influence of ideas or organizations that turn some young m"Hammedists into terrorists. Great Satan has made few efforts toward that end, depending on friendly autocrats or whoever manages to get elected instead of working to strengthen modernizing democrats who share Western values. Governments in the m"Hammedist world would also have to deny terrorist groups the havens they enjoy now and shut down the organized recruitment and training of future terrorists. 

Cheese and Rice!!

Woman worshipping, blood sucking evil infidel murder machine Great Satan, in little over a decade, freed Kuwait, saved bunches of Bosnians, kaboodles of Kosovars, tried to feed skinny Somalis, urged Commonwealth not to kill Chechnyans, warned the world about Sudan's creepy little Hitler Junior, put paid to the genuinely insane Taliban's genocidal rule and made dang sure that no longer were Shiites and Kurds to be literally ground to dust in Iraq.

Or, way back in 1973 when Great Satan asked Little Satan to please not park her panzers in downtown Cairo and Damascus. Or, that Great Satan blings way more tons of cash to Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan than she ever has for Little Satan.
 
And as an intellectual aperitif - consider certain reactions about natural disasters. Amidst the cats Great Satan is lectured to about reaching out and being BFF"s  - outright LOLableness and joy seem to radiate over American victims

In a remarkable contrast - no Americans or Xians LOL"d mudslides or floods in Pakistan. 
 
Rescuing perishing mohammedists whose homeland was swept out to sea (on Xmas day - no less) Great Satan's globe prowling Navy was on scene with salvation not high five pontification on the fate of sinners who reject X. 
 
Cuts both way - might be time for moderate, unterroristical cats in the ME to embrace Great Satan and openly LOL and diss "The Narrative"

Pic - "Reach Out!!" 

Sunday Wow!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter
 

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Decade Of Drone War

Joyeuex Anniversaire!!

A decade since Drones Gone Wild got their cherry popped on the bright cloudless day in Yemen, wacking the wicked with righteous instant Karma for USS Cole and - as a reach around bonus - an enemy recruiter tempting 1st gen Americans to stab their homeland in the back

The Ten Year Drone War has two missions: preventing another attack on the home turf and capturing or killing al Qaeda operatives. 
Since November 2002, there have been 400 more documented U.S. targeted killings in the non-battlefield settings of Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines (where there was reportedly one). Although over 95 percent of all targeted killings have been conducted by CIA and JSOC drones, a small number have also been carried out by Air Force Special Operations Command AC-130 gunships, cruise missiles fired by Navy ships or planes, and raids by special operations forces, including the one that killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011. 

Targeted killings have exacted a considerable toll, far beyond what anyone imagined in the immediate post-9/11 era. Although the publicly available numbers vary among research organizations, an estimated 3,400 people have been killed -- 13 percent of whom were civilians. To more fully understand the scope of these operations, the charts below present data derived by the New America Foundation, The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ), and the Long War Journal. (Out of the three, only TBIJ provides estimates for Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.) Since the presentation of the data varies (either exact figures or ranges), these charts are based on the mean averages provided. 

These estimates are further complicated by the fact that some groups targeted by drones purposefully operate out of civilian facilities in an effort to avoid being killed, by the lack of reliable direct access for journalists due to threats from governments or nonstate actors, and by the Islamic practice of washing, wrapping, and burying an individual on the date of death. Some claim these figures are too high, and others too low
 The truth is that nobody knows!! 
Despite the immense death toll, it is important to mention this is also the most one-sided war in  history: 3,400 suspected adversaries and civilians to zero (Americans). No U.S. government employee has directly lost his or her life in all of the known targeted killing operations. Not the launch control element operators who take off and land drones in theater, the pilots launching stand-off missiles, or the special operations forces deployed on the ground. By comparison, 6,557 U.S. service members have been killed and over 50,000 wounded in action in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Pentagon data.  

Although the Third War began 10 years ago, it shows no signs of ending. It will certainly outlast the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which were also commenced as a result of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. During the final presidential debate, Mitt Romney warmly endorsed 44's drone strikes: "I support that entirely, and feel the president was right to up the usage of that technology, and believe that we should continue to use it." Meanwhile, last week, it's reportedthat, among senior 44th administration officials, "there is broad consensus [targeted killings] are likely to be extended at least another decade."
 Happy BDay Drones Gone Wild! And here's to many more!!

Pic - "What was once considered an immediate response to an exceptional threat to Great Satan is now a permanent and institutionalized feature of Great Satan"s foreign policy."