May 01, 2009

Breakfast hour links

1. Watching nervously & The butcher's bill. The Economist examines the Swine Flu and its impact.

2. Justice Souter to Retire From Court. Obama has his first chance to appoint a replacement for an existing liberal high-court judge.

3. Genius: The Modern View. Genius is slowly, deliberately applied determination.

3 comments:

hank_F_M said...

Jeff

Either my or Mr. Brooks understanding of statistics must have degraded since we were in school.

His argument that persistence and hard work is the cause of genius not IQ.

The types of things he is talking about are measured by the corelation between the variable and the desired result. The scale is from -.0 a perfect negative correlation to 0 no correlation to 1.0 a perfect positive correlation.

Where as the hard sciences won’t look at any correlation less that .7 and they prefer . 9; in the social sciences there is seldom a correlation of more than .2. He did not report the numbers but if they both have a correlation of .2 then the assertions of both hardwork/persistence and IQ can be true at the same time and maybe others of equal strength.

It would seem that a persistent hardworking person of high IQ will go farther than one with only one of these attributes, and much further than someone with neither.

Whatever the real truth is, Mr. Brooks has not proved his assertion.

hank_F_M said...

Jeff

Maybe Obma's appointee will be as much a judicial philosophy disappointment in the opposite direction as Justice Souter was to G H W Bush.

Jeff said...

Hank - Politics is supreme, especially in the Supreme Court during deliberations over major issues. There is no way for a Justice to avoid bringing their prejudices into their opinions; and let’s emphasize "opinion." The Founding Fathers absolutely failed us when they allowed "life-time" appointments to the Supreme Court. No Justice should be on the Court more than 10 years and no Justice should be allowed to serve past their 75th birthday. These are people NOT accountable for their decisions to the American people. No one should escape accountability in a Democracy. Souter stayed on as long as he did, just as White is doing, to ensure they’re replaced by a Democratic President. Pure politics my friend.

You make a good point about Brooks’ argument. My statistical reasoning is a little dusty.

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